RISK MANAGEMENT
Acknowledgements: AOPA/Dan Namowitz & Tom Horne
TRAINING TIP: 'NO UNNECESSARY RISK'
SCENARIO:
Pre-flight weather report
“A warm front is advancing toward the area
with its first effects expected during the time-period of a proposed VFR
cross-country flight to visit family in another state. Ceilings are not expected to go down
for several hours, but throughout the period there is a chance of marginal
visibility and freezing rain from precipitation falling from the warm layer
aloft into colder air at lower altitudes”.
Hmmmm?
A pilot considering a VFR flight might well feel torn between making the
relatives happy by showing up for holiday fun or staying put and missing a
chance to see loved ones and enjoy warm cider and three kinds of pie. Meanwhile,
family members, well-intentioned but unaware of the weighty decision the pilot
faces, are texting, emailing, and calling, eager to know when the flight will
arrive.
Everybody loves pie and no one wants to disappoint, but there are times
when it would be unwise to rely on luck where capability (be
it naturally-inherent or experience-gained) is lacking.
Thanks to a
strong educational effort, numerous widely publicised accidents, and an
abundance of common sense among the pilot population, the number of fatal icing-related accidents
has been trending downward over the past decades.
But, typically,
every year there are still four to six fatal general aviation accidents
attributable in some measure to icing. The reduction’s good to see, but this is
no reason to let our guard down. Besides, as new generations of pilots join our
ranks, it’s important to continue to drive home the basics of icing
avoidance. Seasoned pilots,
with fat logbooks and ratings galore, also should be reminded!
Not only does freezing rain, or even freezing drizzle, pose a serious
threat of structural icing, but a warm front, with its widespread low clouds
and restricted visibility, is nothing to tangle with, especially for a non-instrument-rated
pilot flying a basic aircraft. Unfortunately, not all pilots are deterred.
Here are
some important thought-traps to avoid:
·
It’s just rain. Let’s say
you are instrument-rated and current and are flying in light rain. It’s
tempting to believe that the rain will persist, but you may be flying in a
temperature inversion. This occurs when flying at lower altitudes below a warm
frontal surface. The advancing warm air rides up and over a retreating cold air
mass, causing rain to fall. Problems crop up fast when the rain becomes
supercooled as it falls into the cold air mass. Clear icing or freezing rain
may soon be in the offing!
·
No problem, I
have weather radar. This does a great job showing areas of precipitation,
and the bigger the droplets, the brighter the radar returns. But unless it shows
clouds it’s of little use in avoiding most icing conditions!
·
It’s OK, I’m on
top. That’s a nice place to be, but eventually you’ll descend for a
landing. And it had better be at an airport not affected by icing conditions.
Otherwise, a descent through a cloud layer, or layers if you’re between layers,
could mean that you’ll pick up ice on the way down!
The FAA’s
Airman Certification Standards Concept introduced in 2016 and revised in 2017 is intended
to ensure that an applicant possesses the knowledge, ability to manage risks, and skill required under the certification to be able to act
as Pilot-in-command (PIC). It
includes the requirement for a private pilot applicant to master
task-specific knowledge, and to demonstrate understanding of
each task’s risk-management elements.
“The goal of risk-management is to proactively identify safety-related hazards and mitigate the
associated risks” (FAA Pilot’s Handbook of Aeronautical
Knowledge). It goes on: it is important to remember the four fundamental principles of
risk-management:
- Accept no unnecessary risk. If you are flying a new airplane for the first time, you might determine that the risk of making that flight in low visibility conditions is unnecessary.
- Remember that you are pilot-in-command, so never let anyone else - not ATC and not your passengers - make risk decisions for you.
- Accept risk when benefits outweigh dangers (costs). A day with good weather, for example, is a much better time to fly an unfamiliar airplane for the first time than a day with low IFR conditions.
- Because risk is an unavoidable part of every flight, safety requires the use of appropriate and effective risk-management not just in the pre-flight planning stage, but in all stages of the flight.
IDENTIFY HAZARDS-ASSESS RISKS-ESTABLISH CONTROLS-IMPLEMENT CONTROLS-
MONITOR RESULTS
Remember:
While poor decision-making in everyday life does not always lead to tragedy, the margin for error in
aviation is thin.
FLY SAFE!