WEATHER .v. HUMAN, WHO WINS? .....
Acknowledgements: Thomas P. Turner, Mastery Flight Training, Inc./ Flight Instructor Hall of Fame inductee, & Fred Herzner
(Ed.Note: A slightly longer post this time, extracted from Tom’s lesson this week and covering two recent actual fatal occurrences which provide considerable food for thought when converting theory into everyday practice)
On Monday of this week Fred wrote:
“I’m sitting here thinking about how sad this Thanksgiving time is for general aviation. Nine dead in a PC12 and seven dead in a PA32, and both apparently caused by decisions to fly into horrible weather .... I'm sickened by the number of terribly sad stories I see in the general aviation world where pilots make decisionswhich cost their families and others their lives ....”
Tom comments:
“In the case of the PC-12, the NTSB reports:
... Weather as follows: winds 020 degrees/6 knots, ½ mile visibility with moderate snow and icing, low-level wind-shear, clear air turbulence conditions, overcast skies, base cloud layer 500 feet .... The airplane departed runway 31 and crashed in a field about 1 mile north of the airport.
The US-registered PA32, en-route into Canada at about dusk, crashed in a “very steep” descent angle in “deteriorating weather” .... on the pilot’s first personal flight to Canada.
.... I recall reading an article a few years ago in which the author demonstrated how it is possible to go ... from flight student to Airline Transport Pilot without ever correctly answering a question about aviation weather on a written exam. The author didn’t point out that the pilot would probably fail the oral portion of the Practical Tests if he/she could not answer the examiner’s questions about weather, .... but then again, an examiner is not required to quiz applicants on every topic. And we all know that for many pilots written test preparation is a matter of memorizing questions and answers without developing understanding of the subject matter.
My point, and Fred’s: Weather education and mastery appears to be sorely lacking in civilian flight instruction, through and including the ATP if my friends in the Part 121 training world are to be believed .... More importantly, however, I believe the real problem is that real-world pressures tend to outweigh weather theory. Until a pilot is truly scared because of the weather, he/she tends to dismiss theoretical hazards. Or at least flirt with them, becoming more and more comfortable with adverse conditions and less and less likely to be frightened because, well, nothing bad has happened yet. Eventually there are several possible outcomes:
Nothing bad happens. The pilot becomes comfortable with the risk and may be willing to accept greater risk in the future.
Something bad happens, the pilot escapes it, and the pilot learns to better avoid the hazard.
Something bad happens, the pilot escapes it, and the pilot feels he/she has demonstrated the skill to be able to handle the threat. The pilot then is willing to accept that level or risk routinely and is willing to probe into ever more threatening conditions.
The airplane crashes as a result of entering the hazard, perhaps compounded with other factors (airplane weight, centre of gravity location, day/night/IMC, etc.)
Exercise Scenario 1 .... Assume you are IFR rated and current, flying a capable airplane. You have almost no experience flying approaches in “actual” instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) at night. Now, you find yourself contemplating a night IFR approach to near minimums with reports of strong and gusty winds and low-level shear. Start at “encountering”, which does not necessary mean actually entering the hazard; it may even be in the flight planning stage. Consider your possible decisions through a mental decision tree, and the impact the outcome may have on your future decision-making ....
Exercise Scenario 2 .... Assume you are IFR rated and current, flying an airplane certificated for flight in icing conditions. You even have experience flying in ice. Now, however, there are indications of possible “Supercooled Large Drop” conditions during climb-out from your departure point. It’s early in the day and there are no Pilot Reports (PIREPs). If you take off and encounter the results of an “SLD” episode, what might you do? (If you don’t know what those results are, you’re helping make the point of these LESSONS). Again, consider your possible decisions through a mental decision tree, and the impact the outcome may have on your future decision-making ...
It’s incredibly easy to read these exercises in the comfort of your home or office and say, “I won’t go.” It’s far harder to do so if, say, you’re the pilot of the PC-12 taking a planeload of family home on the Sunday after Thanksgiving. Weather is 500 overcast, visibility ½ mile, and there’s moderate ice and wind-shear in the clouds. Do you go? .... What might happen that prevents you from getting no more than one mile from the runway before crashing, killing you all? ....
Or, you’ve filled the passenger seats of your Piper PA32 with family and friends on a holiday adventure. You planned your flight through dusk into night, and as the skies darken the weather worsens. It’s late November, so ice is always a hazard in the clouds. Why did you take off in the first place? What alternatives did you consider in your planning? What do you do now? ....
***
So, do we need better and more effective weather training for general aviation pilots? Yes. But we’re not likely to see any significant increase in minimum weather training requirements.
What I think we can do, however, is threefold:
1. Do a better job of managing passenger expectations and including them in our decision-making process. Let them know that anyone aboard the airplane can call no-go and the flight doesn’t start or, if in the air, it diverts. If passengers know what’s involved in our weather decision-making, I believe they will be less likely to pressure us (consciously or not) to fly when our best judgment demands otherwise.
2. Develop a list of options when flying on a schedule when hazardous weather may be possible. Include your passengers in creating this list of options so they feel ownership and know you’re doing your best to get them where they want to be as quickly as possible, within the constraints of pilot and aircraft capability in the interest of their safety.
3. Even if you fly under a different regulatory environment, review the Knowledge and Risk Management topic areas of at least the Private certificate and, if you fly IFR, the Instrument rating ACS. Get together with pilot friends and quiz each other on the topics. If you find gaps in your knowledge, review your Aviation Aurhority’s guidance, free online programs from FAA, AOPA and others, and commercial products to fill those gaps. Help your pilot friends learn as you learn from them. Discuss weather scenarios and weather decision-making tree scenarios”.
Will this stop the pilot who intentionally flies beyond his/her capability and experience, and/or the equipment and certification of the aircraft? No. But for the pilot who feels pressured to go because of outside pressures and a lack of pre-planned options, I think this will reduce the tragic incidence of weather-related crashes”.
FLY SAFE!